- Elon Musk wants Starlink satellites to handle the majority of the world’s internet traffic
- 100,000 Starlink satellites would serve every place on Earth with multi-gigabit symmetrical throughput
- This huge constellation would not only serve broadband but would also support AI
It’s a good thing the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is planning to approve satellite licenses via an assembly-line process, because SpaceX has filed an application with the FCC, seeking to deploy its new Gen3 broadband constellation of up to 100,000 low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites.
The application states, “SpaceX’s Gen1 and Gen2 satellite systems already deliver high-speed, low-latency broadband to all American consumers and the planet’s most remote regions. A robust, resilient, and ubiquitous communications infrastructure with the capacity to handle the majority of the world’s internet traffic will allow all people to enjoy the benefits of our shared abundant future.”
Elon Musk certainly thinks big with language like: handling the majority of the world’s internet traffic.
The FCC application also says the Gen3 constellation will deliver extremely low-latency, multi-gigabit symmetrical throughput. And the sheer number of satellites will ensure multiple satellites are always visible from any point on Earth.
It’s interesting that SpaceX is promising multi-gigabit “symmetrical” throughput because currently, Starlink delivers median download speeds of about 100 Mbps, but median upload speeds of only about 20 Mbps, according to Speedtest data from Ookla. Of course, speeds would dramatically increase if the constellation expands to 100,000 satellites, as requested.
The application says the bigger constellation will serve consumers, enterprises and government. Notably, it will also support “billions of AI-powered devices around the world.”
In response to the filing, MTN Consulting analyst Arun Menon told Fierce, “The headline is obviously the 100,000 satellites, but I think the more important story is what SpaceX intends those satellites to support.This filing positions Starlink as AI-connectivity infrastructure rather than simply a satellite broadband network."
He continued. "SpaceX repeatedly argues that future AI applications, from industrial automation and autonomous systems to billions of AI-powered devices, will require ultra-low-latency, multi-gigabit, symmetrical connectivity and significantly higher uplink capacity than today's networks can provide. In that context, the constellation size appears less about serving more broadband subscribers and more about creating the scale needed to support the next generation of AI-driven communications.”
SpaceX’s filing addresses spectrum
The Gen3 system will use spectrum in Ku-, Ka-, V- and E-bands that the FCC granted for SpaceX’s Gen2 system. But SpaceX will also request to operate in greenfield W- and D-band frequencies between 92 and 275 GHz.
SpaceX says the Gen3 constellation will build on the same spectrum-sharing technologies that enable its Gen1 and Gen2 systems to operate alongside other spectrum users. “These capabilities have allowed over 10,000 collective satellites to efficiently coexist with an extremely wide range of satellite, terrestrial and passive users,” states the company.
What about space junk?
In a recent FCC call with media, the agency was asked about space junk. If the FCC processes satellite applications faster, that could mean that space junk proliferates much faster as well.
The FCC spokesperson said its new proposed order to process satellite licenses faster continues to maintain rules related to space junk that the FCC has implemented over the years.
In its application SpaceX stated that it will maintain and build upon its industry-leading space sustainability practices and cutting-edge collision avoidance technologies when designing and operating its Gen3 system.
“The Gen3 system will meet or exceed all Commission orbital debris mitigation rules,” stated the company. “SpaceX will also continue to collaborate closely with the astronomy community to preserve and promote their essential work towards our shared goal to understand and explore our universe.”
In an email to Fierce Network, CCS Insight analyst Joe Gardiner said, "Though Starlink has dismissed concerns regarding collisions with space junk due to having capable propulsion technology, this filing will highlight the need for better governance and international cooperation to avoid any space collisions, as shows the market trend of more satellites being launched into orbit."
What does this mean for terrestrial broadband?
BNP Paribas Equity Research Senior Analyst Sam McHugh wrote today that if SpaceX’s application is approved, “It would give them massive headroom to boost network capacity for Starlink. This expansion would allow the company to compete more aggressively both domestically and globally, facilitating deeper penetration into suburban markets and creating significant disruption for wireline broadband operators.”
SpaceX currently has about 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit and has a total authorized constellation of 15,000 satellites.
McHugh notes that the deployment of SpaceX’s Gen3 satellites is contingent upon the success of Starship, which is a fully reusable super-heavy-lift rocket and spacecraft system being developed by SpaceX for missions to Earth orbit, the Moon and Mars.
BNP estimates that a fully scaled Gen3 constellation (reliant on Starship) could support 200 million subscribers globally, with 15-20 million in the U.S. The BNP analysts believe cable is the most vulnerable business in the U.S. given its penetration in rural America and its relatively low customer satisfaction scores.
1M data centers in space
Musk is also famous for working on several projects (and companies) at the same time.
Earlier this year, he kind of blew everyone’s mind with his idea of deploying as many as 1 million data centers in space. These would be launched in a sun-synchronous orbit to maximize solar power generation.
Musk said in a YouTube video that data centers in space would actually be “quite small.” The bigger problem is supplying the power.
Musk said, “The AI satellite is actually much simpler than a Starlink satellite. A Starlink satellite has gigantic phased-array antennas, it's got parabolic antennas, it's got a lot of laser links. It's much more complicated than an AI satellite. An AI satellite is essentially a lot of solar cells, a radiator, and you still need some laser links, but you don't have all of the super complex antennas that you have on a Starlink satellite.”
*This story was updated after publication with a comment from CCS Insight analyst Joe Gardiner.
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