- Dell’Oro Group projects that the AI RAN market will exceed $10 billion by 2029
- Initial focus will likely to be on Distributed-RAN, aka D-RAN, single-purpose deployments, and 5G
- But operators’ near-term goal is not to revitalize revenue, but boost efficiency
The AI-RAN (radio access network) market is projected to surpass $10 billion by 2029 – accounting for roughly a third of the total RAN market, a Dell’Oro Group report projects.
In the AI RAN Advanced Research Report released Thursday, the market research firm estimates that in the near-term, focus will be specifically on Distributed-RAN aka D-RAN, single-purpose deployments and 5G.
The forecasts based on location, tenancy, technology and region, also revealed that “The existing RAN radio and baseband suppliers are well-positioned in the initial AI-RAN phase, driven primarily by AI-for-RAN upgrades leveraging the existing hardware.”
In 2024, according to Dell’Oro’s data, the leading five RAN vendors contributed to 95% of the total RAN revenue.
Embedding artificial intelligence in RAN promises some serious benefits – streamlined operations, optimized RAN utilization, improved RAN performance and capabilities, and even cost-effective 5G deployment.
Operators are also hopeful that AI will help reduce power consumption by predictively activating and deactivating MIMO functionalities in cells.
However, the payoffs do not include big bucks in revenue for operators. Contrary to what many adopters think, “there is greater skepticism about AI's ability to reverse the flat revenue trajectory that has defined operators throughout the 4G and 5G cycles,” said Stefan Pongratz, VP at Dell’Oro Group and lead analyst for the report.
“There is strong consensus that AI RAN can improve the user experience, enhance performance, reduce power consumption, and play a critical role in the broader automation journey," he continued.
"There may have been some initial confusion when AI RAN was hyped as a game changer that could change the carrier revenue trajectory," Pongratz told Fierce via email. "However, after pivoting away from the AI and RAN utilization concept and shifting its focus to the role AI RAN can play in improving performance and opex, near-term visibility has improved."
This is consistent with what Pongratz has said about the opportunities of AI RAN in the past. “At a high level, AI RAN is more about efficiency gains than new revenue streams,” Pongratz wrote in a blog in May.
However, “operators are not revising their topline growth or mobile data traffic projections upward as a result of AI growing in and around the RAN. Disappointing 4G/5G returns and the failure to reverse the flattish carrier revenue trajectory is helping to explain the increased focus on what can be controlled — AI RAN is currently all about improving the performance/efficiency and reducing opex,” he explained.
In a more recent statement, Pongratz reiterated his point. "Near-term priorities are more about efficiency gains than new revenue streams.”
The AI-RAN Alliance, a global consortium, has grown from 11 founding members to nearing 100 members in the past 12 months with the likes of Samsung, Softbank, Nokia and Vodafone in the ranks. The group promises to open up new streams of revenue around AI-RAN in the near future, but as of now “AI RAN is not a growth vehicle but a necessary technology/tool for operators to adopt.”
This article was updated with an additional quote from Pongratz on July 10, 2025, at 6:06 p.m. ET.