- AST’s satellite launch on Sunday was a flub
- But the fault lies with Blue Origin’s New Glenn launch vehicle
- Analysts say “mistakes happen” and it shouldn’t have too much detrimental effect on AST SpaceMobile’s prospects
A lot of parents are worried that their college-age children will “fail to launch” and end up living in their basement for the rest of their lives. This past weekend, AST SpaceMobile’s latest satellite did not fail to launch, but it did fail to reach the correct altitude in low-Earth orbit (LEO). So sadly, the satellite will be de-orbited.
On Sunday, AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 satellite launched on Blue Origin’s New Glenn launch vehicle. But after launch, BlueBird 7 was placed into a lower-than-planned orbit by the upper stage of the launch vehicle. “While the satellite separated from the launch vehicle and powered on, the altitude is too low to sustain operations with its on-board thruster technology and will de-orbited,” said AST SpaceMobile in a statement. “The cost of the satellite is expected to be recovered under the company’s insurance policy.”
AST SpaceMobile’s next-generation BlueBird satellites are designed to deliver direct-to-cell (D2D) service to everyday smartphones worldwide.
The latest generation satellites are huge, with nearly 2,400-square-foot arrays, surpassing the previous record held by its first-generation BlueBirds at 693 square feet.
BlueBird 7 would have been AST SpaceMobile’s eighth deployed LEO satellite. Most of its other satellites were launched with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.
AST is currently in production through BlueBird 32, with BlueBird 8 to 10 expected to be ready to ship in about 30 days.
The company says it still expects an orbital launch every one to two months on average during 2026, supported by agreements with multiple launch providers, and it continues to target approximately 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026. It can launch more than one satellite at a time.
Analysts weigh in
Luke Pearce, principal analyst with CCS Insight, said, “This weekend’s setback is unlikely to materially change the long-term prospects for AST SpaceMobile. It’s more a case of unfortunate timing than a reflection of fundamental weaknesses in the business. The issue appears to be related to the New Glenn upper stage, which is outside of AST’s direct control. However, the company was already under pressure to accelerate its deployment timeline, and a setback of this nature does add further strain.”
Roger Entner, principal analyst with Recon Analytics, agreed that the weekend’s satellite debacle won’t change AST’s prospects. “This is one satellite out of 60 to 90 that they will launch. Accidents happen. This is not the first satellite mishap and not the last,” he said.
AST has not publicized its launch schedule. So it’s unclear if it plans to use New Glenn for more launches.
“While New Glenn remains an important part of the launch ecosystem, particularly for heavier payloads, it’s likely AST will continue to diversify its launch options where possible," Pearce said. "The physical size of its satellites does narrow the field of suitable vehicles, so there are practical constraints.”
Fierce asked both Pearce and Entner if it's feasible for AST to have 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.
Entner said it’s going to be difficult. “That’s more than one satellite per week. This are big satellites.”
Pearce said orbiting 45 satellites by the end of 2026 is achievable, but it will require a sustained and reliable launch cadence from here. “The broader challenge is that launch capacity remains constrained across the industry, so execution will depend not just on AST’s readiness, but also on the availability and performance of launch providers," he said.
In addition, Amazon Leo is also competing for launch slots for its constellation of satellites to serve broadband customers.
“However, with Amazon not expected to deploy its own direct-to-device satellites until 2028, AST SpaceMobile needs to make the most of its two-year lead time,” Pearce said.