- Starlink Mobile’s U.S. revenue could surge from $1.14 billion in 2027 to $25.35 billion by 2031, according to The Besen Group
- Enterprise services are projected to generate about 70% of revenue by 2031
- Besen Group CEO Alex Besen says Starlink is poised to be both a carrier rival and a partner
How worried should U.S. wireless carriers be about Starlink Mobile?
The Besen Group is providing an answer to that question with today’s release of its Starlink Mobile U.S. Business Plan Analysis, which includes a deep dive into four primary components of the hybrid network model: terrestrial mobile networks, direct-to-cell (D2C) satellite connectivity, roaming/wholesale and femtocells.
The upshot: Under the Besen Group’s modeled scenario, Starlink Mobile U.S. revenue will increase from about $1.14 billion in 2027 to an eye-popping $25.35 billion by 2031. Enterprise services will represent about 70% of total modeled revenue by 2031. That shows how important the enterprise is going to be to the long-term economics of Elon Musk’s Starlink Mobile business.
For mobile network operators (MNOs), it’s important to remember that Starlink Mobile’s business model is fundamentally different from strictly being a D2C or direct-to-device (D2D) provider, said Alex Besen, founder and CEO of The Besen Group.
The idea is for Starlink Mobile to combine terrestrial and satellite connectivity into a single customer experience, using each network where it provides the greatest coverage, capacity and economic value, he said. “They’re going to become the connectivity provider globally, so they’re going to differentiate themselves from MNOs in that way,” he told Fierce.
In the U.S., carriers may have more at stake because Starlink parent SpaceX bought spectrum from EchoStar and likely will be in the market for more in upcoming Federal Communication Commission (FCC) auctions, like the upper C-band auction scheduled for 2027.
“That makes it much more a direct competitor to MNOs and satellite operators,” he said. Outside the U.S., they don’t have the same spectrum ownership advantage. “In the U.S., their plan is a whole different ball game. I think it’s going to be much stronger here.”
Starlink Mobile’s enterprise thrust
The Besen Group analysis evaluates several vertical segments that could potentially benefit from hybrid terrestrial and satellite connectivity: aviation; maritime; healthcare; energy & utilities; construction, mining and industrial; and government, defense and public safety.
Aren’t these exactly the types of segments that many satellite players are already courting?
Yes, Viasat, Intelsat, SES, Iridium and other satellite companies serve these segments with traditional satellite connectivity and specialized rugged devices and they’re going to be particularly vulnerable.
But mobile network operators – including AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon – are all trying to boost their enterprise businesses, which is where the big bucks are to be had, and “they’re all going to have to compete with Starlink on the enterprise side,” he said.
Consumer segment impact
Of course, MNOs will feel the heat in the consumer segment as well as enterprise, but not to the same extent.
“Maybe not a majority of it, but definitely, they’re going to lose” in the consumer segment because Starlink is going to become known as the aforementioned connectivity provider – something that’s bigger than a mobile network provider can do on its own, he said.
However, he stressed Starlink Mobile’s role beyond that of competitor. “I think Starlink can be both a partner and a competitor” to the carriers, he said. “There’s no way they can avoid Starlink in the marketplace. They are going to compete with them, but they’re going to become a customer also.”
MVNO prospects revisited
Earlier this year, Besen published a report on the prospects of Starlink establishing an MVNO with one of the U.S. mobile operators. His latest report doesn’t dwell on that because SpaceX didn’t talk about that during their Q2 earnings call but instead provided a lot more food for thought overall.
Fierce asked Besen which operator he currently thinks might break ranks to do an MVNO deal with Musk – even though the CEOs of all three U.S. facilities-based carriers have said they're not interested.
His prediction is T-Mobile, “because they have an existing partnership with them,” he said.
Read more about Starlink Mobile on Fierce Network:
Starlink Mobile’s MVNO odds look strong: analyst
SpaceX lays out plan to compete with Big 3 wireless carriers
Now SpaceX is talking to Charter about a mobile offer: report
Verizon CEO shuts down Starlink MVNO talk, touts strong Q2 comeback