- Industry executives are gathered this week in Florida for Connect (X), where attendees are talking about the potential for Starlink or Amazon to enter into an MVNO with one of the Big 3
- All three U.S. mobile network operators have said they’re not interested in hooking up MVNO-wise with SpaceX/Starlink, but speculation remains high
- According to one analyst, if any of them were to change their mind, the most likely candidate is Verizon
Verizon made it official last week that it’s not interested in doing an MVNO with Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service – after the CEOs of T-Mobile and AT&T said the same thing.
Where does that leave everyone, and what might be next in Starlink’s orbit?
These are burning questions in the wireless industry right now – and we’re told, though we’re not there, a popular theme at the Wireless Infrastructure Association’s Connect (X) 2026 conference in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, this week.
David Barden, analyst at New Street Research (NSR), attended Monday’s Satellite Partnership Summit that included panels with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Space Bureau Chief Jay Schwarz and executives from various satellite companies.
“It was a good way to kick off the week given the investor focus on the relationship between the satellite and tower industries ahead of the pending SpaceX IPO,” he wrote in a note for investors today.
“Across the panels a consistent theme was the potential for Starlink or Amazon Leo to enter into an MVNO with one of the big three domestic carriers,” he said. “The consistent message over the course of the afternoon was that while anything is possible, the most likely outcome would be a durable wholesale agreement with one or more carriers, similar to the current T-Mobile and Starlink agreement.”
According to Barden, the VP of Business Development & Strategic Partnerships at Viasat, Robert Brown, “conclusively said that it was inevitable that both Starlink and [Amazon] Leo would enter into an MVNO sometime in the next five years. In which country is unclear. For their part, the Big 3 U.S. carriers have each publicly sided against such a move as they did in 2023 regarding reports that Amazon wanted to establish an MVNO.”
Indeed, back in 2023, AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile all told Fierce they weren’t interested in doing an MVNO with Amazon. As of last week, all three were saying they aren’t interested in doing an MVNO with SpaceX/Starlink.
No one should be surprised by these current sentiments, NSR’s Blair Levin said in a report for investors yesterday. However, he reiterated that the dynamics of an MVNO negotiation can change depending on the strategies and tactics adopted by the satellite companies seeking it.
For example, allegations of collusion are sure to come up, and if the Department of Justice (DoJ) were to announce an investigation into the three facilities-based carriers, that could cause them to change their approach. (To be clear, Levin said in a footnote, he’s not suggesting that such an investigation would have any merits; but stranger things have happened.)
Amazon doesn’t have the same political clout with the Trump Administration as SpaceX/Starlink, but its influence could grow, Levin said. (Maybe a sequel to the Melania Trump documentary?, he joked.)
As for either SpaceX or Amazon, an MVNO deal would provide important benefits in terms of increasing their total addressable market. “Any satellite operator would need an MVNO or some sort of facilities-based extension to compete with a facilities-based carrier,” Levin said.
If either satellite company strikes an MVNO deal with one of the large, multi-national mobile network operators (MNOs) like NTT DoCoMo, Vodafone, Orange or Deutsche Telekom, it increases the odds that one of the American MNOs will be willing to come to the table and capture a portion of the revenue from a segment that is likely to include enterprise or business customers who spend a lot of time crisscrossing international borders, he said.
Analyst pegs Verizon as first to cave
Hypothetically, if one of the Big 3 were to agree to an MVNO with SpaceX/Starlink, who’s the most likely to do so?
“The most likely candidate is Verizon,” said Roger Entner, founder of Recon Analytics. “They have the most upside from doing this.”
Verizon is in turn-around mode right now under new CEO Dan Schulman.
What if Musk were to just buy Verizon? Recall that Musk was asked that very question last year during the All-In Summit. Musk’s answer? He smiled and said: “It’s not out of the question.”
Earlier in the same interview, Musk said that Starlink isn’t going to put the other carriers out of business. “They’re still going to be around because they own a lot of spectrum,” he said.
For the record, Verizon stayed mum on the topic. Fierce reached out today to see if the company is commenting and was told there’s “nothing new to add here.”
Would Musk buy Verizon?
Entner is skeptical Musk would want to buy Verizon. Granted, the world’s richest man “can buy anything.” But a telco?
Verizon’s market cap today is in the $198 billion range. “Could he buy it? Yes. Would it be expensive? Yes. Does he need to? No, because suddenly he would be valued not as a rocket/AI company, but he would be valued like a wireless carrier or a telco carrier. Is that really what you want to be valued at? All these people are in it for the valuation,” Entner told Fierce.
Related to that: Why would SpaceX want to get into the heavily regulated telco space, which isn’t exactly growing like a rocket ship?
“If he would buy a telco, he would be a different business,” Entner said. “Then he’s no longer a satellite and AI company; he’s a telco.”
SpaceX and the AWS-3 auction
SpaceX is among the qualified bidders to participate in the AWS-3 auction, which kicks off June 2. The FCC released the full list of qualified bidders on Friday. As expected, AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon are also on the list.
Being qualified to bid doesn’t mean SpaceX will bid. In 2008, Google said it would bid in the 700 MHz auction and it did not win a single bid, showing how even players with the deepest pockets aren’t necessarily there to buy spectrum licenses, Entner noted.
The same could apply to SpaceX. “They have the ability [to bid], but they don’t have to. They’ve never done a spectrum auction before. They might want to see how it is to be a spectrum bidder,” he said. “They might bid on spectrum, and they might not.”
Sure, SpaceX could bid to make the prices higher for the facilities-based carriers. But Entner said the traditional providers – AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon – are likely to be the highest bidders in the AWS-3 auction, which is a hodgepodge of markets across the country.
Back to the other issue of who might do an MVNO with Musk, that remains an open question despite what the MNOs are saying publicly.
“Maybe somebody will blink,” Entner said. “Who knows?”