- VodafoneThree announced a $2.7B network refresh, with the majority of the business going to Ericsson and Nokia
- Open RAN originally was meant to diversify the supply chain, not fortify it for the two big Nordic vendors
- Analysts aren’t saying open RAN is dead, but VodafoneThree’s decision certainly amounts to a significant loss for the ecosystem
Is open RAN dead? That’s a question once again on our minds after VodafoneThree awarded a big RAN deal to Ericsson and Nokia.
The open RAN movement is all about promoting diversification in the supply chain. Awarding the majority of a $2.7 billion network upgrade to the two dominant European infrastructure providers runs counter to that idea. But analysts who spoke with Fierce cautioned not to read too much into it – it’s not indicative of a major market shift, nor is it a verdict on the success or failure of open RAN.
That said, it’s not exactly a shot in the arm, either. Combined with EchoStar’s decision to decommission its open RAN 5G network, it would seem to be another blip in the drive to a more open, expansive vendor ecosystem.
Details of the VodafoneThree deal
The $20 billion merger of Vodafone UK and Three UK closed about four months ago, creating the combined VodafoneThree. This week, VodafoneThree announced the vendors for its 5G standalone (SA) network upgrade, with a previously stated goal of bringing 5G SA to 99.95% of the U.K. population by 2034.
Ericsson won the majority of the contract, including the entire core network, in a deal valued at nearly $1.3 billion that includes more than 10,000 sites. Ericsson will provide radio and core connectivity exclusively to the four U.K. capital cities of London, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast, and it will introduce some new 5G RAN products into the VodafoneThree network, including compact, AI and energy-optimized radio hardware.
Nokia didn’t put a dollar value on its part of the deal, but it marks Nokia’s re-entry as a RAN supplier in the U.K. market for both Vodafone and Three. Nokia will provide RAN gear to about 7,000 VodafoneThree sites, powered by its ReefShark System-on-Chip technology. That includes the latest generation Habrok massive MIMO radios, multiband Pandion remote radio heads and baseband solutions to support future bandwidth and capacity requirements.
Samsung looks to Spring 6
Left out of the award was Samsung, which had been providing Vodafone with its virtualized open RAN technology in what was dubbed the largest open RAN rollout in the U.K.
VodafoneThree didn’t respond to a request for comment, but Samsung shared a statement that suggested the South Korean vendor will be expanding its presence in Europe as a major vendor in Vodafone’s Spring 6 tender. An official announcement of that is expected in October.
“This [Spring 6] development allows us to support Vodafone’s open RAN deployment at scale across Europe,” Samsung said in a statement, noting that it will deliver 4G/5G virtualized open RAN, an AI-powered CognitiV Network Operations Suite and systems integration services at scale and across multiple countries in Europe.
“We continue to see open RAN interest and growth across globe including Europe,” Samsung said.
What analysts are saying
VodafoneThree’s press release announcing its vendors made no mention of open RAN, and it’s tempting to declare this as another nail in the coffin for the technology.
But that’s not necessarily the case. “I don’t think it’s the final nail in the coffin, but it’s definitely the loss of another major supporter for open RAN,” Roy Chua, principal of AvidThink, told Fierce.
Prior to the merger, Vodafone UK positioned itself as Europe’s open RAN pioneer, launching its first commercial 5G open RAN site in Bath in January 2022, followed by a plan to deploy Samsung-led open RAN technology across 2,500 sites in Wales and Southwest England. For its part, Three had explored open RAN as a potential path as well, running urban trials in Glasgow with Mavenir in 2024, he noted.
VodafoneThree’s decision comes after EchoStar decided to decommission its 5G network in the U.S. – a network that was built on open RAN. “The ongoing shift in North America and now Europe away from multi-vendor open RAN and towards the two major incumbents doesn't bode well for a more diverse ecosystem in the future,” Chua said.
Daryl Schoolar, analyst at Recon Analytics, agreed that Vodafone has been, until now, an important driver for the development and adoption of open RAN. The exclusion of Samsung in VodafoneThree’s UK network further indicates the operator’s interest in open RAN has declined, he said.
“For other mobile operators looking at open RAN, Vodafone’s deal with Ericsson and Nokia will only encourage greater skepticism of open RAN solutions,” Schoolar said.
However, Monica Paolini, president of Senza Fili, advised against looking at one specific deal as a verdict on the failure or success of open RAN or any other technology.
“Open RAN is not the appropriate solution for every network upgrade location and clearly open RAN is rolling out more slowly than expected,” she said.
Vodafone has been a proponent of open RAN, setting a goal of having 30% of its network in Europe based on the technology by 2030. “There is room to meet this goal (although I think it is an ambitious goal),” she said.
What does Ericsson say?
Where’s Ericsson in all of this? The company is the lead vendor for AT&T’s open RAN deployment in the U.S. Ericsson declined to comment on VodafoneThree’s announcement but addressed its product portfolio in general.
“We consider Open RAN a reality. Today, we provide a commercially ready Cloud RAN portfolio, including pre-integrated solutions, an Open RAN-ready radio lineup featuring over 100 variants, the Ericsson Intelligent Automation Platform, and rApps,” Ericsson said in a statement.
Ericsson’s portfolio already is being deployed in major networks like AT&T’s, and it’s begun testing third-party radios from 1Finity (Fujitsu) with AT&T and deployed a third-party RAN automation application (rApp) with the U.S. operator.
“Right now, Ericsson is focused on building faster, smarter and more agile/flexible mobile networks,” the Swedish vendor said. “By adding intelligent software and tools directly to the radio access network layer, operators can improve performance and offer differentiated services. The move toward an open architecture makes it easier to adapt and innovate.”
So there you have it. Whether Ericsson’s version of open RAN is truly “open” will no doubt remain subject of debate for the foreseeable future.