- Blair Levin’s role at NYU Center on Technology Policy is part of his “rewirement” – not a full-time position
- Levin sees similarities between the telecom upheaval of the 1990s and today’s wave of AI
- One thing that’s wildly different: the public’s attitude about technology
When Blair Levin left his position as policy analyst at New Street Research in August, he told everybody on LinkedIn that he was looking forward to “rewirement,” rather than retirement.
In other words, he was in the process of figuring out what to do next in a way that continues to leverage his skills analyzing issues that span politics, economics and capital markets.
It looked as if he might have found that next role when it was announced last week that he joined the New York University (NYU) Center on Technology Policy as a senior fellow contributor.
But no. It’s not a full-time job – more akin to his stints at The Aspen Institute and Brookings Institution. He’ll continue to serve on the board of the Information Technology Innovation Foundation (ITIF) and at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, D.C., as well as at NYU.
In between these responsibilities, he’ll be looking for that next gig that supports his “rewirement” endeavor. “I will simply say: Stay tuned,” he told Fierce in a wide-ranging interview. “I'm in discussions with various people and we'll see how it plays out.”
Whatever it is, it will capitalize on his time as a telecom policy and equity analyst at firms including Legg Mason, Stifel Nicolaus and most recently, New Street Research. Along the way, he’s been recognized by The Wall Street Journal as “the most learned of telecom analysts.” (Certainly, he's one who's often cited here on these pages at Fierce.)
Prior to his Wall Street work, the Yale Law School graduate did two stints at the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), one as the chief of staff for then-Chairman Reed Hundt from 1993-1997 and another as chief architect of the 2010 National Broadband Plan.
The 2010 National Broadband Act served as the country’s first comprehensive roadmap to address the digital divide, establish broadband objectives and set the stage for the broadcast incentive spectrum auction.
While often cited as the architect of the National Broadband Plan, Levin said its creation was “a very collaborative thing” and they hired about 75 people to work on the project, in addition to hundreds of staff at the FCC who contributed to various aspects of it.
The ’90s set the digital stage
Levin said he’s a great believer in the saying that “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
That explains to a large degree why Levin, 72, will continue adding to the dialog about the big issues affecting telecom today. “I think the next three to four years will be the most disruptive, interesting and problematic three or four years since we dealt with the kind of change telecom regulation brought in the mid-’90s,” he said.
The 1990s completely changed the nature of communications in the U.S. and laid a foundation for digital voice, streaming and most importantly, internet and broadband. Remember, it wasn’t just the 1996 Telecom Act but legislation and events that touched wired and wireless, cable, spectrum auctions and the World Trade Organization’s telecom pact, to name a few.
“We're now in the process of doing a similar thing,” he said.
In that sense, it’s sort of like: “Here we go again.” Except in this case, one of the big differences is the public’s attitude. In the ’90s, consumers were very much pro-tech compared with today.
Now, they’re fighting data centers in their communities and worrying about what AI is doing to their children. “AI will change everything. Every company will be affected by AI,” leading to market, policy and network challenges, he said.
AI, satellites and all the big things
Besides AI, another big change affecting the telecom industry is satellite technology. Sure, it existed 20 or 30 years ago – recall Teledesic and earlier versions of Iridium and Globalstar – but things are much different today.
Fierce asked Levin about SpaceX and its impact on the mobile industry. Here, it’s worth noting that his research reports (and conversations) typically include helpful, often humorous, references to literature, movies and popular songs.
He noted Elon Musk’s current interest (and lack of reception) in India.
“Lots of people who are smarter than me about the technology have very articulate positions on this, but I think it is absolutely hilarious that Elon Musk is, to quote a famous movie, ‘Shocked!, Shocked,’ that a wealthy oligarch in India is using his wealth and political power to create difficulties for Musk entering the country of India,” he said.
For the uninitiated, Levin noted a line from the 1942 film “Casablanca” where Captain Renaut expresses mock outrage about the gambling that’s occurring: “I’m shocked! Shocked!,” says the actor Claude Rains.
More to the point about SpaceX’s impact on the mobile industry, “we’re in the early innings of this game and the carriers have never had to face an opponent who, from a capital markets perspective, is almost unlimited” in its access to money, he said.
“I think Musk has a number of different plays here and all of them involve taking some of the cash flow that the current wireless providers have and moving it to SpaceX,” he said. “The question is: How does he do it? Does he participate in the C-band auction? Does he get friends in the Justice Department to bring certain actions?”
Most assuredly, Musk has multiple ways of approaching the wireless industry, he said, and the notion that there’s one obvious clear and simple path is naïve. “I think Musk is very good at having multiple paths to victory.”
In a June 26 report for NSR on the SpaceX implications for telecom in which Levin reviewed SpaceX’s S-1 IPO filing, he noted that the form didn’t mention anti-trust or competition policy.
In a footnote, he said: “Nothing we write should be read as implied criticism of the drafters of the S-1 who know a lot more than us,” with a reference to “the great Bob Seger (who was not a securities lawyer),” who once sang, it’s hard to know “what to leave in/what to leave out.”
That’s how we feel about this story, too.
Circling back to the fact that not many people trust technology these days, that makes it a difficult climate in which to develop good policy.
“But you know, I remain a little bit hopeful,” he said.
Read more about Blair Levin's views via Fierce Network:
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