- T-Mobile CTO John Saw welcomed SpaceX’s wireless ambitions but warned that spectrum alone doesn’t make a competitive mobile network
- Analysts say SpaceX’s 800 MHz purchase is meaningful, but building a viable fourth carrier will take years, billions of dollars and a substantial terrestrial footprint
- For perspective, remember that SpaceX’s start in rural markets puts smaller wireless operators at greater risk than the Big 3
T-Mobile has spent the past five years or so trying to make its 5G mobile network No. 1 in the U.S.
Prior to that, T-Mobile CTO John Saw spent a good part of his career in chief technology roles at Sprint and before that, Clearwire, striving to build a mobile network that would stand the test of time.
Neither of those survived, but after T-Mobile bought Sprint in 2020, it finally gained the firepower and spectrum to leapfrog the competition. By 2025, T-Mobile declared itself the owner of the “best mobile network” in the U.S., with the Ookla seal of approval.
So it’s not a big surprise that Saw felt compelled to respond to SpaceX’s purchase of 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management and its declaration that SpaceX will use this newly acquired low-band spectrum to pave the way for Starlink Mobile to become a major mobile carrier in the U.S.
“If this is truly the beginning of a new wireless provider in America, we welcome competition. It's good for innovation, good for the industry, and most importantly, good for customers,” Saw said in his Oct. 9 post on LinkedIn.
T-Mobile: Spectrum vs. network
“But great wireless networks aren't built with headlines or spectrum licenses alone. They're built site by site, neighborhood by neighborhood, in subway tunnels, office buildings, stadiums, and communities across America,” he said, adding that T-Mobile spent years building the foundation and continues to push what’s possible with 5G Advanced and beyond.
“That's why I'm confident in the Un-carrier's combination of the best network, the best value, and the best customer experience,” Saw concluded. “Spectrum is an essential ingredient. But it takes a network to deliver on its promise.”
Saw’s message is especially noteworthy because unlike its two closest rivals, T-Mobile has a commercial relationship with SpaceX and made a big deal out of announcing their partnership a few years ago, which led to the T-Satellite direct-to-device (D2D) service.
But it’s also a bit of a full-circle moment in that Saw was part of the team at Sprint that tried to sell femtocells to consumers to improve their coverage inside homes and businesses and SpaceX is talking about using femtocells as part of its strategy.
Zooming out: 800 MHz is one piece
The big headline today is how SpaceX bought 14 megahertz of 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management, but that’s not a lot of spectrum in the big scheme of things.
Musk called it the “last critical piece of the spectrum puzzle” needed for SpaceX to provide complete phone coverage in America, but it’s really more like “one of” the pieces, said Anshel Sag, principal analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy.
“I just have a hard time thinking that this is the moment when everything changes,” he told Fierce. “This is a very long road for them, and I really think my biggest criticism of this entire endeavor is that I don't think SpaceX is being transparent with their investors about how much they actually need to invest to make this a viable competitor to the Big 3.”
SpaceX knocks off a certain percentage of value from the publicly traded wireless companies every time it makes a pronouncement about how it plans to dominate the mobile phone space, but each of these announcements doesn’t necessarily have a lot of teeth.
That said, “I think what’s they’re trying to do is possible. I just think it’s going to cost a lot more than they’re willing to admit and it’s going to take longer,” Sag said.
Dish Wireless took years and it didn’t get even halfway there after spending more than $10 billion. “I think D2D is overhyped in a lot of ways, especially when we think of actual usage and penetration and I don’t think SpaceX is magically going to change that,” Sag said.
What’s the end game for SpaceX and Elon Musk?
Roger Entner, founder of Recon Analytics, previously predicted that Musk will build a network rather than gain access to one via an MVNO type of arrangement.
Contrary to some Wall Street analysts, Entner doesn’t think Musk’s end game is to strike an MVNO with a mobile network provider. Rather, the 800 MHz purchase puts him one step closer to building his own network, which will then be used to make money to fund more worldly, space-based pursuits – like robots in space.
“He’s not looking to become the biggest wireless carrier in the country. He’s looking to make a lot of money so that he can invest somewhere else. He’s going to play to his strengths, which is in rural [areas]” and build out from there, he said.
Starlink Mobile will certainly take revenues from the likes of AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon, but they are not the ones with the most to lose.
“He is definitely coming,” Entner said. “But it’s a means to an end,” and the small, rural telcos are the ones that are going to be wiped out in the process.
Read more about T-Mobile and SpaceX on Fierce Network
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